Tropical Data and Species Extinction

Tropical rainforests have the highest biodiversity of all habitats on Earth with about 80% of all documented species living within them. This fact is even more incredible because tropical rainforests only cover about 6% of the Earth’s surface (WWF). However, with current threats to these critical habitats, the collection and analysis of data on these ecosystems and their inhabitants are paramount in understanding the problem and guiding a solution. Below is a map of the globe with tropical rainforests highlighted in pink.

Current projections suggest that around 1 million plant and animal species face extinction due to anthropogenic activities and climate change. Mass species extinction like this is a big issue for a multitude of reasons: “[Biodiversity] holds critical genetic information, which could help us cure diseases, create new drugs, design climate-resilient crops and more. Every time we lose one of these species, we also lose some of that crucial information. Additionally, all of these species help to build thriving ecosystems, which provide a host of benefits to humans — from freshwater to food to fertile soil” ( Hannah).

So, what is it about climate change that is so detrimental to species survival and the conservation of biological diversity? As species evolve, they adapt and become experts in living in their ecological niche. These niches have specific climate and environmental characteristics that are essential for a given species fitness. Therefore, as the climate changes, species are prompted to follow their ideal environment. However, there are physical barriers that exist that can prevent the movement of these species and in turn their ability to survive. For example, tropical fish in the Caribbean are already migrating North right into the Gulf of Mexico which eventually will stop the northward movement of these tropical fish and decrease their fitness. This is known as the escalator to extinction (Hannah).

A comprehensive study published in the Journal of Ecography in February of 2020 uses novel methods of data analyses to pinpoint tropical regions to prioritize global conservation efforts. Their models predict that just conserving 30% of all tropical land by 2030 will cut the extinction risk in half.

If these at-risk species are on the move, then how do we know where to focus our efforts? The study gathered data on the locations and distributions of terrestrial plants and animals as well as climate change data from a wide variety of publicly available data sources. The researchers then used this data to “model present and future geographic ranges of 94,337 plant species and 9,722 vertebrate species across the Neotropics, Afrotropics and Southeast Asian tropics” (Hannah et. al). They used this data alongside a variety of pre-existing models and algorithms to determine the highest priority regions. The researchers utilized the following tools: Climate models, a spatial planning algorithm, an extinction risk calculation, species distribution models, environmental predictor variables, etc. (Hannah et. al.)

The results of this study show a promising extinction reduction as the proportion of tropical rainforest that is preserved increases:

Using the aforementioned models and algorithms they pinpointed areas to be conserved. The depictions also show priority gradient as well as the current terrestrial use:

With comprehensive and hyperlocalized data analyses like this, governments and organizations can make decisions and enact policies with the highest efficacy. This will result in the best effort to mitigate species extinction and habitat conservation.

Research Paper:

Hannah, L., Roehrdanz, P. R., Marquet, P. A., Enquist, B. J., Midgley, G., Foden, W., … Svenning, J. C. (2020). 30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%. Ecography. doi: 10.1111/ecog.05166

Other sources:

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