独家优惠奖金 100% 高达 1 BTC + 180 免费旋转

Will H.R.1044 ever pass?

You are here either as a supporter of HR 1044 (updated from HR 392) or against it. This post is an analysis of current situation and hopes to shed some light and make you ask questions.

So will HR 1044 pass congress and will it ever be implemented? My guess is as good as yours, only time can tell. The question is do you have the time to wait patiently? For a 22 years old starting a career in US, there is enough time to wait it out. For someone in mid to late 30s, time might be running out. This is especially for folks whose dependent kids would age out and have to self deport. (These are kids who were born overseas and belong to a country with a huge employment based green card backlog, they migrate to US with their parents as dependents and have to self deport as their parents are still waiting for their green card and most likely are on a non-immigrant H1B visa)

This story is for folks whose time is running out and help them make an informed decision. I asked myself all these questions and made a final call. I hope it helps you too.

TL;DR

Laws passed in US with respect to immigration follows these rules

Following are detailed analysis for the above conclusion.

Why does US have a country based restriction for issuing Greencard?

Around the end of civil war 1864, central pacific had trouble finding workers for building railroad through Sierra Neveda mountains. They turned to Chinese workers to work in these dangerous conditions and during winter to link east and west USA. They took low wages and dominated the work force numbers. By 1870s Chinese immigrants continued to rise. Anti-immigrant sentiment rose and San Francisco’s china town was attacked in 1877. In 1882, Congress passed a Chinese Exclusion Act and Page Act. Chinese immigrants already in the state were prohibited from becoming Citizens. This hostility continued in early 1900s as well.

After 1924, laws limited immigration based on national origin and discriminated against those from Africa and Asia. By 1960, 85% of all visas were given to people from northen and western Europe. President Lyndon Johnson signed Immigration and Nationality Act on October 3rd 1965 to admit immigrants anywhere in the world based on their skills and family ties in US. This happened a year after 1964 where civil rights act was introduced.

This basically meant that a large group of people based on their ethnicity, national origin etc could demand for laws or changes to existing law. I believe, this backlog in different categories like Employment based, investment based is meant to avoid demographic changes or category of folks of certain nationality, race etc which could eventually demand changes to laws.

For whatever reason it is, why is this restriction only for Green card and not for H1B visas?

H1B visas holders have a productive output and help American companies develop and compete well globally, much like the Chinese workers on the rail road did. They pay taxes to cover for a part of government expenses and can’t claim welfare. H1B employees can invest in business but not work for them, not even on a weekend. Their productivity is primarily meant for their employers, letting them work in the weekends could affect that.

Overall, Seems a good deal for any country right? Why would US restrict this H1B based on any classification, be it country origin or something else?

Green card on the other hand opens possibility to Citizenship, access to welfare and immigrants don’t have to be dependent on employers anymore and technically their productivity and motivation towards their employer might not be the same. No surprise that this is limited by country of origin.

Why does one get to upgrade priority date just by marrying someone born in a country without a backlog?

For some reason, one could marry someone from a country without backlog and can get a green card soon. Their skills, talents etc necessary to perform their job still stays the same. So why are they more worthy for a green card than by marrying someone from a backlogged country? The only possible explanation is mixed-race kids who tend to not have strong tie to either countries of parents. This too boils down to demographics, not skin color, not race but a strong tie to US.

Given countries like Canada, Australia have a merit based immigration system. Why is that not the case with US?

Demand supply dynamics plays a role here. Canada, Australia are competing for high skilled folks and have little of offer compared to US (weather, salary etc). Their selling point is a permanent residence based on points which doesn’t discriminate based on national origin. This is not the case with US where far many immigrants are willing to migrate despite restrictions of H1B. If tomorrow, all H1B folks ~300k primary applicants decide to go back to India, there is another batch willing to migrate and accept the very same laws that is not considered favorable by the current batch. Remember, Modi promised that India will supply labor force for the world. Countries export resources sadly human exports involves emotions.

Besides, highly skilled merit based immigrants would want a fair treatment and which is something not favorable for US employers.

Finally, a merit based immigration can’t guarantee diversity. Few countries with a good education system can flood the system and can again lead to demographics changes.

Why is diversity so important to US?

I guess, this is necessary to maintain the existing structure from schools, sports, work, culture etc. Do you think Cricket could ever be as big as Baseball? How would kids respond to diversity changes at School? Does diversity change brings in more competition? Does it challenge status quo? What would be the impact of hiring when someone without strong tie is in charge? Would there be a hidden bias? A diverse group of non-immigrants just under 1 million is demanding changes to immigration law. Imagine what could happen if they are admitted without any limits? It is not just 300k and their dependents as the flood gates would be opened.

So demographic changes is something that is perceived as not favorable by US think tank. Keeping demographics diverse is a good hedge against all these possible side effects and a slow steady intake ensures this.

Note this has nothing to do with race but just how strong of a tie to US. This explains multi-race kids, DACA kids. Look around, kids born to first generation immigrant parents will not have any willingness to express tie with their parents country.

Why is tie to US so important?

Even though tie might seem trivial and not important, it plays a significant role in case of economic down turns, wars, policies, laws. Someone without a string tie to US might just leave the country should it not be worthy anymore unlike someone who has a strong tie willing to stay and fight it out. This might not be the case with everyone but by and large this is the thought behind the idea. Countries like Canada too gives extra immigration points for anyone with a strong tie in the country. I can bet current 300k backlogged folks will leave in a hurry if whatever they are seeking in US (financially or otherwise) is not the case anymore, despite their tax contributions etc.

Why is DACA being given so much importance over legal tax paying, law abiding non-immigrants hoping to become immigrants?

Even though it might seem not fair for Congress to prioritize DACA over H1B folks, this again boils down to potential tax collection and these kids don’t have strong ties to their countries. They are practically american except that they were born elsewhere. Their belief system is as close to american values as it gets. This might not be the case for kids brought up high skilled H1B folks. In my experience, they are thought to be more independent and reason.

Why is it so important for US think tank to control?

I guess, this boils down to economics. Ability to control people’s reasoning affects business like for instance it is easy to sell “Medical tourism causing antibiotic-resistant” to certain folks. This basically discourages folks from spending money outside US for their medical needs. A high skilled, well educated, well reasoning, foreign country raised might not buy this. And if too many folks don’t buy this, it can affect economics in US and think tank has to limit this possibility from first generation immigrants. Too many and too quick in flow of immigrants of a particular type can cause side effects.

For instance, here is in episode 2 of season 3 Shark tank, Donny McCall’s pitch is to create local jobs and help his community (commendable). However, when challenged based on business economics, he responded with “wanting to manufacture a quality product at home.” and that overseas manufacturing can’t guarantee that. To which Robert Herjavec responded saying “Integrity is integrity and it is not an Asian thing or an American thing”. Even though, his goal was commendable it was based on a presumption that overseas manufacturing has quality issues (despite millions of iPhones being made in China). It could be a poor choice of words in response to being emotional but this simple thought process has huge impact in folks doing business and there is a huge incentive to retain/control this thought process.

A product should be sold based on the its own merit and not based on where or who made the product. Apple is proud of products designed in California but don’t use that as a sale pitch. Their sales pitch focuses just on product functions. Now, go back and check so many ads in US pitching sales claiming made in america and/or by americans. This thought process helps local business much like how a country might subsidize a company’s expense to make it competitive globally.

Finally, US is not against number of immigrants (US accepts far many immigrants), it is the pace of acceptance that matters. For instance, US could accept 10 million immigrants in a single shot (FCFS) than a million a year for a decade. Even though the numbers at the end are the same, it has huge impacts. Check the same sentiment expressed in this debate (even though the talk was about illegal immigrants, the logic applies for legal ones as well)

What has been the role of employers?

Employers are just leveraging the situation. H1B restrictions make them more competitive globally and makes life easy for Managers to get work done. There is little incentive for them to change existing system unless high skilled folks move in a different direction (demand supply).

In my case, i tried to educate a co-worker whose priority date was May 2018 about the situation. It just happened in front of some managers. They went out of the way to make my tasks difficult. It didn’t matter as i was heading out anyways. Point being, Employers and HRs are well aware of this problem and don’t want it to be fixed. On a separate note, i had sent a note to my HR about HR392 and she had promptly forwarded it to lawyers and asked if that was good enough. Seriously, lawyers benefit from the repeated H1B extensions. Why will they want this to be fixed?

Finally, what do you think will happen to Managers in these companies who are used to exploiting these workers. Their leverage would vanish overnight with any kind of reforms, affecting output and competitiveness of them in the global race. Do you really think they want a reform? What is the tech lobby going to do?

Irony is that you are considered more employable because of your limbo immigration status (not in all cases). Given a permanent status, that could change. Doubt it? Search about Canadian PR’s local experience discrimination in Canada and the fact that they settle for low paying/low qualification jobs.

All this seems too cynical, my america co-workers are very nice and genuine. How can their government/think tank be different?

Its true, all Americans i had an opportunity to interact were nice and genuine. However, i believe this all is a part of a complex house of cards involving US dollar, high wage compared to rest of the world, existing public debt etc. A company like Apple might want to do the right thing but if their savings is in billions of USD, they are going to be a part of everything that will ensure value of that savings.

US manufacturing firms could easily complete with Chinese ones by reducing price of products. A part of this could be done by lowering wages which could affect a typical american family’s mortgage. US is vast and could offer a reasonable housing price unlike a country like Singapore with limited real estate. This however is a race to bottom, lower wages will not attract overseas talent and they could help develop their countries and compete with US.

Bottom line, no matter how unfair some things might be in US, it is needed to keep the system going and if you are benefiting from the system, any proposed change will undo the benefits that you get to start with.

What about the recent trends? Denials for H1Bs extensions, too many RFEs. H4EAD revocation. Is this because of Trump’s policy and just a coincidence?

This might seem to be because of Trump but i guess this timing is related to the high number of H1B folks demanding changes to the law. In a negotiation, when one party has something and asks for more, the other party could come with an approach of taking away whats already on the table. I believe, this is why there is a significant H1B rejections hoping that the group will settle for what is already on the table and not ask for more.

Does it make sense to pay a fee of 10000 or 5000 USD to fast track green card application? How do you think it is perceived on the other side?

This is a total non-sense and would suggest folks to stop. First of all, EB5 folks willing to invest 500k or a million USD too have the same country specific limit. Again, diversity is so important over millions of dollars. Now, do you really think limit in EB2/EB3 will be removed for a mere 10k? Even if this proposal is accepted, greencard brings in liability, welfare claims etc. What if beneficiary claims more than 10k worth from US government over time? Wear different hats when you come up with proposals like these.

Second of all, it makes the group so desperate. When was the last time you got a good deal in a negotiation being hungry and desperate? Try getting a deal from Car salesman saying you don’t have a car and desperately need one? Negotiations fail when you are talking from a position of weakness and that is the case with HR392, HR1044 and results are not surprising.

If you can take anything from this, never go shopping when you are hungry, always plan ahead be it immigration, job search or whatever you run into in life.

HR392 had 328 co-sponsors in previous congress and now there is a new initiative HR 1044? They surely have an intent to fix this right? Trump tweeted about pathway to citizenship for H1B folks in Jan 2019.

In football, there is a play called smoke screen or a play action pass, a deceiving play to gain some yards. I believe, this is what is the case with HR392 and HR1044. Trump had historically been against H1B even with a republican majority congress and he then tweets in middle of a shutdown after losing the house to democrats that he wants a path for H1B high skilled folks to citizenship. Does it make any sense? The timing was suspicious as all hopes for HR 392 faded away. Probably, the think tank wanted to send a message and they did, what did they hope for? Probably, for H1B folks to continue being hopeful and do their thing without taking drastic quick decisions.

It was also surprising to see quick traction on HR1044 with many congress men tweeting about it as well. This could be because of how different folks could perceive this differently. Someone 40 years old might call it quits after waiting 10 years. Letting them go is not bad for US, they are getting old, less productive, might need medical care sooner or later. On the other hand, someone 25 years old will be excited, hopeful, motivated and will be more productive helping US employers be more competitive.

This is just a in-out system designed carefully by the think tank to help US corporations and US. If congress really wanted to fix, they would have done so a long time back. Just check some of the laws passed by Congress in middle of Trump presidency (related to Music streaming industry etc ). The only case they will fix is if US is not able to attract talent anymore. If that is not going to happen soon, you are better off looking at other options (their country, their laws). Be a part of the change you want to see.

Kevin Yoder diwali tweet before mid term elections too was suspicious. He had been to a diwali festival and put up photos on his twitter account before the elections. This was while in the middle of billboards showing up in Kansas city to elect him out claiming he is supporting H1B folks over Americans. Why would a politician risk this except for losing the election? This is like someone in Congress party in India posing for a picture with someone related to bofors just before an election. Does it make sense? Kevin could have been genuine but why put up a tweet before elections and have that deleted after the elections?

Yoder, Trump don’t get anything by supporting H1B folks, even if they are given green cards, it would take a good 5 years for them to cast a vote on any policy. So why would they risk alienating their base except to give a false hope? If this reading seems too cynical, what do you think happened a week before 2016 presidential elections?

Congress members are saying everything that we want to hear. But actions speaks louder than words. Just analyze how all co-sponsors of HR 392, HR 1044 are blindly supporting it. If you were in their shoe and are seriously considering the bill, wouldn’t you evaluate all pros and cons and conclude only a merit based system protects everyone’s interest? Meanwhile, Congress passes laws it considers as important, here is a law to protect salmon.

Amazon Policy, Intel Policy all are tweeting in support for reform. All Amazon, Intel, Google, Microsoft needs to do is to start shipping jobs overseas (not outsource) as their high skilled employee’s quality of life is affected.

If anything, try to understand motives for an action and see if that makes sense. Get good at critical reasoning, it helps in your job too. GMAT has good training for critical reasoning, most engineers would not have been exposed to this. Please do yourself a favor and spend some time on that (not to do an MBA just to get good at that skill)

At end of the day, you would see more patterns of good cop, bad cop and lip service. The best analogy is how Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones took a knee in support of players.

And had a different take altogether.

Point being, when push comes to shove, folks wanting to maintain status quo (for whatever reason it may be) will dink and dunk, drag the issue and will show no consistency. There is one thing you can count on, Congress will never say NO to it, as that would put an end to it.

US surely will not let this happen and end up losing these folks to other countries.

Why do you think current system is fine for US? Majority of folks affected by the backlog are folks who execute ideas and are easily replaceable. The younger someone is, more productive they are for execution. A older resource leaving US is not going to stop the operation. US appreciates folks with original ideas, patents, outstanding talents etc and there is pathway to green card for those roles. At the same time, the system maintains diversity.

Why is this happening to us, we have played by the book?

To an extent, one can’t help given strong tie to a foreign country.

Besides, I don’t think they buy into the idea of current backlogged folks as high skilled. Sure, good for executing ideas but they want better in the world of AI where only a handful of companies in US are going to be relevant (software) except for the ones in China trying to compete. Current approach of false promises is to frustrate the weak ones and drive them out (self deport). Again their country, their policy.

Any proposed reform will have a shot only when it first benefits US interests. Nothing in HR392 or HR1044 prevents or stops abuse by H1B visa holders. There are enough cases of fake resumes, misrepresented phone/skype interviews, employees running their own pay roles, employees being on bench, misusing OPTs etc. As a community, we will have to concede this happened and suggest something to prevent this going forward. That shows an intent to use H1B for its original idea and is an easy sell. Ignoring these totally and just asking for a blind first come first serve based green card makes your case weaker.

Some of the argument for employment based GC reforms is that employers don’t hire based on national origin and GC too shouldn’t be based on that. Reasonable argument but the very same employers don’t hire on a FCFS basis, they take all job applications, evaluate and hire the most skilled/suitable candidate. So why should GC be based on a FCFS basis? I get that existing system is punishing truly high skilled folks from a backlogged country but two wrongs won’t make it right. Take a hint and push for merit based system as an optimal solution.

Finally, the think tank behind HR 392/1044 should wear different hats and analyze all possibilities. Here is Leon Fresco’s take (31:48) on the root cause of this backlog being competitive advantage for employers which is just a part and he totally missed the strong tie aspect of an non-immigrant.

So what can be done?

Like warren buffett said, best investment one can make is in themselves. This will always stand the test of times, policies etc. If you are really good at what you do, money and all things you seek will follow you. Get good at your skill, provide/increase your value and try to move your job overseas. This is a reasonable request for an employee’s quality of life. If your manager/HR don’t understand this, you shouldn’t be working for them anyways. Change your job and keep trying.

There are enough places to offer the same qualify of life as US. Do your research and you would be surprised. Ultimately, self-respect is as important as anything. If the group is letting themselves to be treated like this, who can help?

If you still want to pursue, you will have to tell a story. Narrative is what works in US. Remember, the national 60 minutes show which covered Disney replacing few folks with H1B holders and how the narrative was quickly shifted to entire H1B community? Narrative is what works, stop begging.

If you still ask for reforms, stop asking for a first come first serve and instead ask for a merit/point based system. Ask for points for time already spent in US paying taxes but be willing to compete. If you want to immigrate on skill basis, be willing to compete. There are some folks who shouldn’t be here in H1B (forget about greencard), asking for FCFS doesn’t make your case. Ask for a conditional greencard or EAD, no welfare until retirement or something like that. With this, there is no risk for government and the battle is just between you and employers. You would be surprised how tech lobby would become active then.

Finally, be aware of lip service. Lucille Roybal-Allard claimed to be a co-sponsor of HR 392 and had no problem holding high skill non-immigrants hostage in the name of a comprehensive immigration reform and quite a few members of congress share the same opinion. The very same had a problem when Trump held federal employees hostage in the name of funding wall. Hypocrisy at its best.

Still don’t buy into any of this?

How about this? By keeping 300K and their dependents in limbo, don’t you think US has a leverage when negotiating for a trade deal with India? Why do you think they will just give away this for nothing?

FYI, here are some of the recent events from India (Dec 2018 and Feb 2019 ) which should give you an idea of the Geo politics.

Another one, remember about E3 visas for Irish citizens in Dec 2018, research about US and Ireland corporate tax discussions.

You are just a pawn in this global economics and sometime pawns are scarified for a larger positional advantage in the game of chess. Focus on what you can control, diversify and hedge your risks.

I’m a student outside US and from a backlogged country. Should i try to pursue masters in US?

US is great for education but given the situation, don’t even try if you have to pay for the education. Do it only if you get 100% scholarship and that too only in top educational institutions like MITs, Standfords etc. Use the time to explore, make friends, network but be smart about your expectations.

Hope, this gives your some insights and helps you ask right questions. If this helped you give some data points, please share it with your friends. Ignorance is not an excuse and the worst thing for hard working folks is not to be aware of ground reality.

Add a comment

What is your view?

Send

Related posts:

Good Counseling

Espy was one of the first officers I met on January 3rd, 2019, the day I self-surrendered to the now infamous and closed MCC federal prison in Downtown Manhattan, New York. Espy was (and I assume…

How to Stop Thinking That Everyone Hates You

One of the things that I used to struggle with is how people see me. This used to make me think that people saw me in a negative way without having any evidence to back up the story. Now that I am…

My thoughts on online learning

To be completely honest, I was a bit skeptical when signing in this course and had a few doubts. There are a few reasons for that. Firstly, as I am not a student of the Faculty of Education but a…